Buy or sell for 50 cents on the dollar

It always great advice to buy for 50 cents on the dollar. Or is it? Perhaps sometimes it’s good to sell for 50 cents on the dollar before the bottom completely falls out.

Five former first rounders have fallen into the 5th/6th rounds mostly due to injuries. This is a stage that all fantasy stars go through eventually. Some of them bounce back to the 2nd rd, some provide good value in the 4th-6th rds for many years (David Ortiz for example) and some enter a tailspin to the waiver wire (Mark Teixeira for example).

Which ones do you like? Which ones are you staying away from? What about Ryan Braun in the 3rd, Jose Reyes in the 4th, Dustin Pedroia in the 9th or Chris Davis in the 11th? What other guys are seemingly on sale that you are interested in?

Joey Votto – ADP 70 – Just a couple of years ago Votto was a top 10 lock that had just signed a massive contract extension. He was a rare 5 category first baseman that filled up the stat sheet. Nobody really expects 8-10 year extensions into a player’s 40’s to end well but the extension had barely started before the injuries began. In 2012 he was productive when he played and 2013 was a solid but unspectacular season for a 1st round pick. Last season was awful and owners might have been happy to place him on the DL instead of having to start him. Early reports from camp are promising though.
From Cincinnati.com

“I feel like I’m swinging, I’m throwing, I’m taking ground balls, I’m running,” he said. “I feel like it’s a pretty big contrast compared to the end of last season and during the season last year.”

This is of course the same story we hear from every player that struggled with injuries. I am buying at pick #70 in the hopes that he rebounds to 2013 Joey Votto with the chance of former 1st rd pick Votto returning.

Carlos Gonzalez – ADP 54 – Here is another 5 category perennial top 25 player that has constantly been on the DL. He has missed 17, 35, 27, 52 and 92 games since his rookie season. Similar to Votto, he was very productive when he did play until last season. Last season was one injury after another injury until his season ended for good in August. I feel confident in saying that injuries were the cause of his poor performance last year. I’m less confident that he will be 100% by opening day or that he won’t get injured again next year. I’m buying Cargo at #54 but I’m not very excited about owning him. I am currently holding him in my deep dynasty league because the best offer is only 25 cents on the dollar.

From the Denver Post

He is sprinting without pain now, and the next step will be running the bases and making sharp cuts in the outfield. Manager Walt Weiss said neither CarGo, nor star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who is coming back from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip, will play in any Cactus League games until they are ready.

Matt Kemp – ADP 47 – Matt Kemp put together one of the best fantasy seasons a few years ago by someone not named Mike Trout. I drafted him the following year and he had a good but injury shortened season. Unfortunately the injuries continued to plague him and get more serious. He managed to make it through last year healthy and posted a bit of a rebound season hitting .287 with 25 HRs and 9 SBs. Those are good numbers in the 4th rd if he can repeat it but if he loses the SBs and a little BA then he becomes a lackluster pick with significant injury downside.  I’m not too concerned about the Petco effect but I’m lukewarm on buying Kemp unless he drops a couple more rounds.

From Foxsports

“I think everybody has some situation going on as far as being arthritic in their bodies,” Kemp said on reporting day for position players.

“All you guys have something going on in your bodies. But it’s finding a way to get around it and being successful. I actually feel really good. My hips feel great and I’m ready to go.”

Evan Longoria – ADP 57 – Evan Longoria is not like the other players on this list that have all suffered from injuries in recent seasons. Longoria was picked at the end of the 1st rd for several seasons despite not consistently putting up 1st rd numbers. The BA has slid in recent seasons and the SBs are gone. I expect the BA to rebound a little season and expect a similar unexciting line like Matt Kemp. He doesn’t have the same upside as Kemp but he comes with less injury risk and 3B eligibility. I’m okay with buying Longoria at pick 57.
Prince Fielder – ADP 65 – 2014 was supposed to be a big rebound year for Prince Fielder moving from spacious Comerica to a hitter’s paradise in Arlington. Instead his season ended early with a neck injury that required spinal fusion surgery. He’s expected to be recovered by the start of the season but it’s unclear what kind of effect this will have on him long term. Peyton Manning is one of the few examples of professional athletes that have returned following a similar surgery but the requirements of both sports/positions are very different. I am not buying Fielder this season.

From the Star Telegram

No reason, he said, because he feels like he did when he was pocketing 30- and 40-homer seasons not too long ago.

“I would say so, because I’ve done it before,” Fielder said. “If I’ve done it before, it’s realistic in my eyes. I’m 100 percent. That’s they key. I feel good. Nothing’s hurting, so it’s all good.”